'Glass' Ready to Crack Open a $50+ Million Holiday Debut

After just two weeks, 2019 has already had some notable highlights, including the surprise $20 million debut of The Upside last weekend while WB's Aquaman became the first film in the DC Extended Universe to top $1 billion at the global box office. Now, this weekend is looking to M. Night Shyamalan's Glass to deliver the second largest January and Martin Luther King Jr. openings ever behind only American Sniper.

Universal's release of Glass is the highly anticipated third film in M. Night Shyamalan's Unbreakable franchise, following the runaway success of 2017's Split, which opened with a massive $40 million en route to a $138.3 million domestic run and nearly $280 million globally. The film brings together stars Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Willis and James McAvoy, and is set to open in 3,841 locations with the studio anticipating a $50 million opening over the film's first four days. Based on the information we're looking at that is something of a conservative forecast, though the mixed reviews the film has received thus far could prevent it from excelling throughout the weekend.

A look at IMDb page view data shows Glass out-performing Split over the two weeks ahead of release as well as A Quiet Place, which delivered a $50.2 million opening last April. That said, the reviews for the film do not live up to either of those comps, suggesting audiences may come out early, but word of mouth could hurt the film over the weekend and through the Monday holiday. As a result, we're anticipating a performance somewhere around $45+ million for the three-day and a four-day performance approaching $52 million or so.

Look for STX's The Upside to deliver a second place performance following its strong debut last weekend. Right now we're looking for a three-day drop around -21% and a $16+ million three-day and a four-day performance around $19 million. This should give the film a domestic cume around $47 million or so come end of day Monday.
WB's Aquaman should land in third as it pushes over $300 million domestically this weekend. We wouldn't be surprised to see a three-day performance around $10-11 million with a four-day around $13 million if Glassdoesn't steal too many eyeballs, and push the film's performance a bit lower.

Looking at a fourth place finish is Sony's A Dog's Way Home, dipping around -22% in its second weekend for a sophomore frame right around $8.5-9 million, pushing toward $11+ million for the four-day weekend and a domestic cume around $25 million.

Rounding out the top five is Sony Animation's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, looking at a three-day performance over $6 million and a four-day performance over $7.5 million. By the end of the day Monday the film will be looking at a domestic cume approaching $160 million as it gets closer and closer to becoming the animation house's highest grossing domestic release.

It's also worth mentioning that FUNimation's release of Dragon Ball Super: Broly delivered $7 million on its Wednesday release. That release, however, was a special event, though the film will still be in several theaters throughout the holiday weekend. We still don't have any information as to just how many locations the film will be in, but to expect it to deliver a top ten performance isn't at all out of the question. That said, since we are still in the dark as to how many theaters the film will be playing in, you won't find it in the forecast below.

This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

THREE-DAY FORECAST
  • Glass (3,841 theaters) - $45.0 M
  • The Upside (3,320 theaters) - $16.1 M
  • Aquaman (3,475 theaters) - $10.6 M
  • A Dog's Way Home (3,090 theaters) - $8.8 M
  • Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2,712 theaters) - $6.2 M
  • Mary Poppins Returns (2,810 theaters) - $5.0 M
  • Escape Room (2,709 theaters) - $4.4 M
  • On the Basis of Sex (1,957 theaters) - $4.2 M
  • The Mule (2,688 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Bumblebee (2,711 theaters) - $4.0 M
FOUR-DAY FORECAST
  • Glass (3,841 theaters) - $52.0 M
  • The Upside (3,320 theaters) - $19.0 M
  • Aquaman (3,475 theaters) - $13.0 M
  • A Dog's Way Home (3,090 theaters) - $11.1 M
  • Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2,712 theaters) - $7.6 M
  • Mary Poppins Returns (2,810 theaters) - $6.2 M
  • Escape Room (2,709 theaters) - $5.5 M
  • On the Basis of Sex (1,957 theaters) - $5.3 M
  • The Mule (2,688 theaters) - $5.2 M
  • Bumblebee (2,711 theaters) - $5.0 M
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by Brad Brevet

'Glass' Ready to Crack Open a $50+ Million Holiday Debut

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